Escaping the News

In the weeks leading up to the close of this issue, I started keeping notes on possible topics for this column. First, I thought I would write about controlling travel costs in a recession, now that economists were using the “R” word; but then the industry suddenly was buzzing about aircraft maintenance concerns. Within days, hundreds of thousands of passengers were grounded as airlines scrambled to appease a newly strident FAA. In early April, three carriers went bankrupt within the space of a week. On April 14, Delta/Northwest finally agreed to merge.

With the news changing so fast, I decided to put this column on hold while I went on vacation. For a solid week in lovely Barbados, I read only fiction (OK, and the Times Digest).

A week in paradise (found at two truly heavenly properties, The Colony Club and The House) can do wonders to clear one’s mind. While avoiding any decisions except what type of tequila to have in my margarita, it occurred to me that periods of turmoil are hardly new to air travel, and while it might be more of a hassle, we generally can get where we need to go. Furthermore, I reasoned, fares have hardly budged in decades, at least on the domestic front. Stats from the Air Transport Association and Credit Suisse put the average domestic ticket at 12.83 cents per mile in 1981; 26 years later, the average fare was 12.90 cents per mile. Despite all the turbulence, how much has really changed?

I returned, relaxed and tan, and was slammed with more news. Eos had folded its wings, I learned via car radio while shelling out $58 for gas. On April 25, jet fuel was $146.80 per barrel, up 72.7 percent from the previous year (to track this obsessively, go to http://www.iata.org/whatwedo/economics/fuel_monitor/index.htm). At this point, analysts in all camps agree the airlines simply cannot survive without dramatically raising fares and slashing routes.

The flat fares that have propelled so much of our work and play seem on the verge of extinction. As someone who relishes travel, I’m loath to admit this, but the flawed status quo has reached its breaking point. It’s time to brace for real change.